A scenic view of the Kashmir Valley
The latest attack on a CRPF checkpoint in Kulgam is another reminder that the security challenge in Jammu and Kashmir remains far from over. Three CRPF personnel were injured after unidentified motorcycle-borne attackers opened fire near Mir Bazar on November 11. One personnel was reported to be critically injured in initial reports. The attackers escaped, prompting security forces to launch a search operation.
While the investigation is still underway and the attackers’ affiliation has not been established, the incident raises a larger question: Are terrorist networks increasingly relying on smaller, sudden attacks to keep Kashmir unsettled?
A look at the history of militancy in the region suggests that such attacks are not new. For decades, terrorist organisations have used a combination of ambushes, targeted killings, grenade attacks and large-scale assaults. What has changed over time is the operational environment, the choice of targets and the way these attacks are carried out.
A pattern that goes back to the 1990s
The use of small teams and hit-and-run attacks has been a feature of militancy in Kashmir since the early 1990s.
During the initial years of insurgency, militants frequently targeted security patrols, police installations, checkpoints and civilian establishments. Rather than always engaging in prolonged encounters, armed groups also relied on sudden attacks followed by quick escapes.
The period also witnessed targeted killings and attacks on minority communities, aimed at spreading fear and creating insecurity.
Some major examples include:
- 1998 – Wandhama massacre: 23 Kashmiri Pandits were killed in a targeted attack.
- 2000 – Chattisinghpora massacre: 36 members of the Sikh community were killed.
- 2001 – Jammu and Kashmir Assembly attack: Militants carried out a major attack on the Assembly complex.
- 2001 – Parliament attack: Armed terrorists attacked India’s Parliament in New Delhi, killing nine people, besides the five attackers who were killed.
- 2002 – Kaluchak massacre: 30 people, including Army personnel, family members and civilians, were killed.
- 2003 – Nadimarg massacre: 24 Kashmiri Pandits were killed.
These incidents show that militant violence has historically included both small-team operations and high-casualty attacks. The two approaches have never been mutually exclusive.
The broader history of Pakistan-based militant organisations, including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, also demonstrates how cross-border terrorism has remained a persistent national security challenge for India.
The shift towards smaller and more targeted attacks
Following the decline in large-scale militant activity, terrorist networks also demonstrated their ability to operate through smaller and more covert formations.
The period between 2021 and 2023 saw targeted killings and attacks on vulnerable civilians, including Kashmiri Pandits, migrant workers, political workers and off-duty security personnel.
The emergence of so-called hybrid militants also complicated the security situation. These individuals could carry out attacks without necessarily appearing on the radar as established, full-time militants.
A September 2025 study by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point identifies three broad phases of militant activity after August 2019:
- 2019–2020: A decline in attacks amid security restrictions.
- 2021–2023: Resurgence of hybrid militancy, targeted killings and intimidation.
- 2024–2025: More lethal and high-profile attacks, including assaults on civilians and security forces.
This evolution suggests that militant networks have adapted their methods in response to sustained counterterrorism operations by Indian security forces.
Major attacks have not disappeared
It would, however, be incorrect to conclude that terrorist groups are abandoning large-scale attacks.
The February 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing, which killed 40 CRPF personnel, demonstrated the continued threat posed by high-casualty operations.
The April 2025 Pahalgam massacre, in which 26 people were killed, further exposed the ability of Pakistan-linked terrorist networks to target civilians and attempt to create communal tension.
The National Investigation Agency subsequently named Lashkar-e-Taiba and its proxy, The Resistance Front (TRF), in its chargesheet relating to the Pahalgam attack.
These incidents underline an important point: smaller attacks and major strikes can coexist as part of the same militant threat.
The objective of a terrorist attack is not always measured by the number of casualties. A smaller attack on security personnel, for example, can still create fear, attract national attention and challenge the perception of stability.
What the official data tells us
Despite these security challenges, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a substantial decline in terrorist-initiated incidents compared with the levels recorded in 2018 and 2019.
According to figures provided by the Ministry of Home Affairs in Parliament, terrorist-initiated incidents declined from 153 in 2019 to 46 in 2023, a reduction of approximately 70%.
| Year | Terrorist-initiated incidents |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 153 |
| 2020 | 126 |
| 2021 | 129 |
| 2022 | 125 |
| 2023 | 46 |
These figures are based on data from the Jammu and Kashmir Criminal Investigation Department (CID).
The government also reported that civilian deaths in terrorist-initiated incidents and encounters declined from 44 in 2019 to 14 in 2023. Security personnel killed declined from 80 to 30 over the same period.
These figures demonstrate the impact of sustained security operations and the weakening of the overall militant ecosystem.
However, a decline in total incidents does not mean the threat has disappeared. The nature of attacks, the vulnerability of targets and the geographical spread of violence remain important security concerns.
Pakistan-backed networks remain a security concern
India has repeatedly identified Pakistan as a source of cross-border terrorism and has called for action against terrorist organisations operating from its territory.
Organisations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have a long history of attacks against Indian security forces and civilians.
A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) documents Lashkar-e-Taiba’s evolution, its links with Pakistan’s security establishment and its use of small arms, explosives, grenades and fidayeen operations in Kashmir.
The emergence of newer proxy formations has further complicated the threat landscape. Indian security agencies must therefore monitor not only known militant organisations but also their recruitment, logistical and support networks.
At the same time, responsibility for individual attacks must be established through investigation rather than assumed.
India must remain vigilant
The November 11 Kulgam attack reinforces the need for sustained vigilance, even as the overall security situation has improved considerably over the years.
The government has outlined a multi-pronged counterterrorism approach involving round-the-clock checkpoints, intelligence sharing, area domination, surveillance, cordon-and-search operations and action against networks providing logistical support to terrorists.
These measures remain important in preventing attacks and protecting security personnel deployed across vulnerable locations.
The challenge for India is to ensure that improvements in security translate into lasting peace, without allowing terrorist networks any opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities.
Kashmir has made significant progress, but the threat of terrorism has not disappeared. India’s security forces must remain prepared, its intelligence network must stay alert, and those responsible for attacks against its citizens and personnel must face firm action.
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