India expects the EU deal to start between January and March 2027 and EU carbon certificates go on sale on 1 February 2027.
BERLIN: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on 22 October that the India-European Union free trade agreement should be signed before the end of 2026 and take effect between January and March 2027. Speaking at the Berlin Global Dialogue, he also criticised the EU’s carbon border levy and steel curbs. The remarks set two clocks running, one for businesses preparing to trade and one for a dispute over green rules that could blunt the deal’s gains.
Sign before the year ends
The framework was concluded on 27 January 2026, after talks that began in 2007, stalled in 2013 and relaunched in June 2022. Goyal said the final push took about 13 months and he cited European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s description of the pact as the “mother of all deals”. He expects entry into force within four to five months of signature.
Several steps remain. Lawyers must finish scrubbing the text and translate it into the EU’s 24 languages. After signature, the European Parliament must consent following review by its trade committee. Because this is a pure trade agreement, national parliaments are not required to ratify it, unlike the separate investment protection pact. India’s Union Cabinet must approve it and customs notifications will follow.
Open the order book early
Goyal urged firms on both sides to start preparing now. He asked them to exchange samples, quality requirements and prices so that they are “first off the block” when duties fall.
The concessions are broad. India has offered duty-free entry on about 49.6% of its tariff lines at once and it phases out another 39.5% over five, seven or ten years. In all, the offer covers 92.1% of lines and 97.5% of trade value. Dairy, poultry, beef, cereals, edible oils, tea, coffee, spices and tobacco stay protected. For its part, the EU keeps meat, dairy, honey, rice, sugar and tobacco outside the deal. Textiles, garments and generic medicines are expected to gain most in Europe, while German machinery makers gain deeper access to India’s infrastructure drive.
Mind the carbon gap
The sharpest friction is the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which covers steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. Its definitive phase began on 1 January 2026, and certificate sales start on 1 February 2027, inside Goyal’s own window. The first surrender deadline for 2026 imports falls on 30 September 2027. Brussels says the mechanism prevents carbon leakage by matching the carbon price of imports to that of EU producers.
Goyal said Europe was hurting itself. He argued that pairing the levy with a 50% duty on out-of-quota steel is “inviting disaster” and would lift the cost of living. He pointed to 75 to 77 EU regulatory frameworks and warned that a reciprocal world invites counter-measures. He also recalled the unmet $100 billion climate finance pledge from 2009 and noted that India holds 17% of the world’s people but produces under 3% to 3.5% of emissions. These are his arguments, and the EU would dispute several of them.
Indian trade analysts estimate that the levy could amount to a 20% to 35% burden on steel and aluminium exports, with smaller firms hit hardest by compliance costs. The agreement is expected to include capacity-building and recognition of accredited Indian verifiers, so exporters need not rely only on EU auditors. How firmly the final text writes that in remains an open question.
Meet the German boardrooms
Goyal also met three companies in Berlin. Fresenius chief executive Michael Sen discussed expanding manufacturing in India and using it as an export base. Bayer’s pharmaceuticals head Stefan Oelrich talked about clinical research, local manufacturing and partnerships. Knauf’s Murat Akyildiz explored sustainable building materials. No investment figures were disclosed.
At a business roundtable, Goyal set a target to grow India-Germany trade tenfold, from about €31.5 billion to €310 billion, across precision engineering, digital technology, AI, semiconductors and green infrastructure. Germany is already India’s largest trading partner in the bloc. He also opened the India Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations, and a 100-company delegation is visiting Germany and the Netherlands until 27 October.
Watch the next few weeks
Several markers will show whether the timeline holds. Joint readouts should confirm legal scrubbing and a signing date and the Parliament’s consent must come without new conditions. Customs notifications from India and the Commission will set tariff schedules in early 2027. The European Commission’s rules on accrediting non-EU verifiers will matter for steel and aluminium, and so will foreign investment approvals for the German firms. The Netherlands leg, including Rotterdam logistics talks, runs from 24 to 27 October.
Encouragingly, India has a deal close to the line and a European audience that is listening. Ultimately, the first months of 2027 will show whether tariff gains arrive faster than carbon costs.
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