Trade must grow 130%, from $30.4 billion in 2025 to $70 billion by 2030, for the target to be met.
MUMBAI: Canada has sent its largest commercial delegation to India in more than 30 years. Nearly 300 business leaders and exporters, led by International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, are visiting Mumbai and Bengaluru from 12 to 17 October. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Anita Anand arrives on 13 October for talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Together, the visits aim to give fresh momentum to a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that both sides hope to close soon.
Why is this mission different?
Scale and sequencing set it apart. The delegation spans aerospace and space, clean technologies, information and communication technologies, life sciences and agri-food and forestry. Business matchmaking runs alongside ministerial dialogues. Notably, it follows a diplomatic reset, as High Commissioners returned to both capitals in late 2025 and Prime Minister Mark Carney made a state visit to New Delhi from 27 February to 2 March 2026.
Ottawa’s Indo-Pacific Strategy aims to double non-US exports over a decade, which makes India a priority market. Sidhu has said the mission should help more than double two-way trade to $70 billion by 2030.
Is this the trade deal?
Not yet, and the distinction matters. The mission is a commercial promotion effort meant to produce contracts, joint ventures and partnerships. The CEPA is a legally binding government-to-government framework, negotiated by India’s Commerce Ministry and Global Affairs Canada. Talks began in 2010, stalled over agriculture, rules of origin and mobility, and were suspended in late 2023.
Since the reset, however, the pace has been brisk. Terms of Reference were signed on 2 March 2026. Rounds followed in New Delhi in May, Ottawa in July, Mumbai in September and Ottawa again on 5 October. Reports say negotiators aim to finalise the text by end-November or December, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Canada. India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, says India has made a balanced offer and expects a deal soon. That remains an expectation and not a commitment.
What does each side bring?
Canada’s strengths line up with Indian needs. Cameco has signed a $2.6 billion contract with India’s Department of Atomic Energy to supply 22 million pounds of uranium, which supports India’s plan to reach 100 GW of civil nuclear capacity by 2047. Canadian pulse growers supply lentils and yellow peas, and a Pulse Protein Centre of Excellence at NIFTEM in Kundli links Saskatchewan producers with Indian processors. Canadian pension funds, including CPPIB, CDPQ and PSP, hold about $108 billion in exposure that represents long-term capital for infrastructure and renewable projects.
India, in turn, offers software talent, generic medicines and active ingredients, and a large market for aerospace components, green hydrogen and grid technology. Canada hosts over 425,000 Indian international students, and India is pressing for binding commitments on the temporary movement of skilled professionals.
Where could talks snag?
Agriculture and mobility are the sensitive chapters. Canada seeks predictable access for pulses, canola oil and processed foods, while India guards farm incomes and keeps dairy out of tariff concessions. Similarly, India wants provisions for engineers and healthcare workers, yet Canada is adjusting its own caps on temporary workers and student permits. Rules of origin, investment protection and certification standards for pulses and technology hardware are also on the table.
Can trade really reach $70 billion?
Two-way trade in goods and services stood at $30.4 billion in 2025, according to Global Affairs Canada. Education travel dominates Canada’s services exports. Goods trade is led by pulses, fuels and wood pulp from Canada, and by precious metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals and apparel from India.
Reaching $70 billion means 130% growth, or more than 18% a year. The earlier goal, set when the two prime ministers launched talks, was $50 billion. The larger figure also counts services, institutional investment yields and long-term nuclear contracts. Encouragingly, affiliates of Canadian firms already employ 68,941 people in India, against 37,902 in Canada for Indian firms, which gives both sides a base to build on. Delivery will still depend on the uranium contract, steady pulse and fertiliser purchases and growth in Indian IT exports.
What should we watch?
Joint ministerial statements after the fifth and sixth rounds come first, followed by an initialled legal draft ahead of Modi’s visit. Trade data, pulse tariff-rate quota notifications and pension fund deployments will show real-world effects, as will contracts announced by delegates. The Indian Express has reported groundwork to invite Carney as Republic Day 2027 Chief Guest, though that remains unconfirmed.
Encouragingly, India and Canada are now discussing contracts and chapters rather than a freeze. Ultimately, the year-end target will show whether 300 delegates and five negotiating rounds can become a signed agreement.
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