India's global capability centres grew from 1,800+ in FY2024 to 2,117 in 2026, generating $98.4 billion.
BENGALURU: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has called tighter US visa rules a structural accelerant for India’s technology sector. Speaking at the 12th Economic Times Startup Awards on 9 October, he said every H-1B visa not granted is a big win for India. His case is that talent, tax revenue and corporate work will increasingly stay at home. However, the policy behind the remark carries real costs for individual professionals, and the evidence for his thesis is still building.
What Washington announced
A day earlier, on 8 October, the US Department of Labor suspended eight companies from its Permanent Labour Certification programme, known as PERM. They are TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe. At a White House briefing, Labour Secretary Keith Sonderling cited alleged displacement of domestic workers, and Vice President JD Vance criticised outsourcing firms sharply. These are the administration’s allegations, and the companies dispute them.
Importantly, the suspension does not cancel existing H-1B visas or block new lottery petitions. Instead, it halts the route from temporary status to a green card, since employers need PERM before filing an I-140 petition. Consequently, workers nearing the six-year H-1B limit without a pending petition face the sharpest risk.
Responses were firm. TCS said its US strategy and its plan to hire 15,000 workers there stay unchanged. Microsoft said over 80% of its roughly 6,000 H-1B filings last fiscal year were extensions or status changes. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called Vance’s characterisation of Indian IT professionals deeply offensive.
How the argument works
Goyal outlined four channels. Engineers who stay pay income tax in India and spend in its economy. Experienced leaders strengthen deep-tech, robotics and AI startups. Meanwhile, companies that cannot fly engineers to US client sites move the work to Global Capability Centres in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Gurugram, Noida and Mumbai.
He added that executives from IBM, General Atlantic, AIA, MetLife and Nike outlined plans to expand Indian operations during his recent US visit. That account comes from Goyal himself. He also said he has kept H-1B quotas and green card backlogs out of trade talks, which he describes as being on a steady keel. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, however, recently described the talks as having reached a plateau.
What the capability-centre data shows
The numbers are encouraging. The NASSCOM-Zinnov 2026 report counts 2,117 active centres generating $98.4 billion, up from $64.6 billion across more than 1,800 centres in FY2024. Bengaluru hosts over 900 of them. Moreover, the centres are changing character, moving from staff augmentation and vendor contracts to captive units that handle product engineering, enterprise AI, cybersecurity and intellectual property.
A 1 October deal illustrates the shift. TCS agreed to acquire 100% of Best Buy’s India centre, BBY Services India LLP, for ₹1 lakh, and it signed a five-year services agreement worth an estimated ₹2,000 crore. TCS plans to turn the unit into an enterprise AI hub. Markets stayed calm as well. Indian IT shares rose after the suspension, and TCS reported solid second-quarter results, as analysts judged that PERM limits affect individual green-card routes more than near-term delivery.
Notably, the data shows growth but does not isolate visa policy as the cause. The centres were expanding well before this week’s suspension.
The trade-offs
The benefits arrive at national level, while the costs fall on individuals. Professionals building US careers face freezes, and those reaching the six-year limit may return home or move to Indian offshore facilities. Furthermore, India received about $125 billion in remittances in 2025, with the US contributing over $30 billion, so slower emigration could eventually flatten that growth. Diaspora angel capital and corporate influence may also weaken over time.
Some US clients could nearshore work to Mexico, Canada or Eastern Europe instead. Meanwhile, a proposed $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B petitions remains blocked by federal courts pending appeal.
What to watch
Several markers will test the thesis. The first is whether the PERM suspensions end through compliance audits in six to twelve months or harden into three-year debarments. Grade-A office absorption by capability centres in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune and the National Capital Region matters next, along with the onsite and offshore revenue split in quarterly filings by TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech. Court rulings on H-1B fees and RBI remittance data complete the picture, while the hubs’ roads, housing and utilities must also keep pace.
Encouragingly, India enters this test with 2,117 centres, deep talent pools and corporate partners who are already expanding. Ultimately, the next few quarters will show whether Washington’s curbs become India’s opportunity.
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