Rainfed fields make up over 44% of India's cropped area yet produce roughly 40% of its foodgrains, which puts them first in line if winter moisture fails.
NEW DELHI: India’s winter crop season faces serious strain in rainfed regions, Union Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra warned on 28 September 2026. Speaking at the National Conference on Agriculture for Rabi Campaign, he said production in the coming season is “likely to be affected to a large extent.” The caution comes as sowing of wheat, mustard and lentils is set to begin in October.
A warning before the seed goes in
Chandra described the just-ended kharif season as highly challenging. Several states first struggled to complete sowing and then to keep standing crops alive. Looking ahead, he flagged uneven moisture: some pockets face prolonged deficits while others may carry residual excess. Accordingly, he urged state-specific crop plans, diversification and wider use of digital tools such as land-linked Farmer IDs. However, the full transcript of his remarks has not been released, and state-wise production targets remain unstated.
What the Pacific is signalling
The warning coincides with a stark scientific outlook. In its 21 September update, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University reported that the Niño 3.4 index reached +3.0°C in mid-September. Moreover, all 22 models it surveys project “very strong” El Niño conditions through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The IRI puts the probability at 100% through February 2027, easing to 61% by mid-2027, and notes the episode could rank among the strongest on record. A strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected through December. Notably, the IRI summary does not specify winter rainfall probabilities for South Asia.
El Niño weakens the atmospheric circulation that feeds India’s monsoon. For rabi farmers, the effect travels through the soil. Crops sown in October and November depend on residual moisture and on reservoirs and aquifers recharged by monsoon rain. Furthermore, warmer winters linked to El Niño speed up evaporation from un-irrigated fields.
The monsoon that fell short
That carryover is already thin. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended about 12% below the long-period average (11.9% as of 27 September), the lowest seasonal rainfall since 2014, according to the IMD. June ran 36% short, July recovered to 1% above normal and August fell 16.3% below. Meanwhile, 309 of roughly 740 districts recorded deficient or large deficient rain. East and Northeast India (-24.5%) and South Peninsular India (-23.4%) fared worst, while Central India stayed within the normal range.
Kharif data reflect the stress. Total sown area reached 109.49 million hectares, down 1.2% year on year. Paddy acreage fell 3.73%, maize 2.23% and soybean 0.72%. Maharashtra has declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas, while Karnataka has declared 124 drought talukas and sought central interim assistance.
Where the risk concentrates
Irrigation remains India’s main shield. About 55.8% of gross cropped area is irrigated, with tubewells supplying nearly half of net irrigation. Wheat in the northwest, over 90% irrigated, is relatively protected. By contrast, rainfed farming covers over 44% of the cropped footprint and produces roughly 40% of the country’s foodgrains, including much of its pulses and oilseeds.
Consequently, exposure is sharpest in specific crops. Gram, part of a roughly 140 lakh hectare rabi pulses area, depends heavily on subsoil moisture. Mustard, sown on about 87 lakh hectares, needs pre-sowing moisture, and early deficits can shrink its acreage. Rabi jowar and barley on the Deccan plateau are largely rainfed. Additionally, rainfed wheat pockets in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan face germination and heat risks.
Prices and policy levers
The price backdrop is already firm. Wholesale inflation rose to 9.92% in August, driven by food and fuel. Weaker kharif pulses and a possible drop in rabi chana could widen supply gaps, while stress on soybean and mustard raises dependence on imported edible oils. In rural Maharashtra and Karnataka, lower farm incomes may also dampen consumer demand.
The government has begun moving. On 24 September, it cut import duties on edible oils. Beyond that, the Food Corporation of India can release wheat and rice through open market sales, while MSP procurement of pulses and oilseeds can encourage farmers to maintain acreage. At the conference, the ministry also pushed drought-tolerant seeds, minimum tillage and mulching.
What to watch
Several variables will decide the outcome. Firstly, post-monsoon rain and Western Disturbances could replenish northern soils, or dry conditions could persist into 2027. Secondly, reservoir storage in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh will shape canal irrigation. Thirdly, it remains unclear whether farmers will switch to hardier crops. Finally, with mandi prices for several kharif crops running below MSP, the strength of procurement will influence rabi planting. Weekly sowing data, Central Water Commission reservoir bulletins and food inflation prints are the indicators to track.
Planning, not panic
History offers caution without certainty. Past El Niño drought years such as 2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 cut kharif output and rainfed rabi planting. Nevertheless, those patterns are not a forecast for 2026–27, since winter weather, irrigation access and farm practices still shape the final harvest. Read in that light, the Secretary’s warning works as an early planning signal, delivered before a single rabi seed is sown. Encouragingly, that leaves states time to adjust.
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