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NEW DELHI: On the night of June 8, a US Army Apache helicopter went down near the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz struck by what US intelligence identified as an Iranian Shahed drone. Both pilots survived rescued within two hours by an unmanned surface vessel the first time in history a downed crew was recovered by a robotic ship. However by 5 p.m. the following evening, US Central Command had launched retaliatory self-defence strikes on approximately 20 Iranian targets: radar installations, air defence systems and The War India Cannot Afford: Hormuz Blockade Bleeds OMCs
ground control stations near Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Jask and Sirik. Iran hit back before midnight, firing drones and missiles at US-allied airbases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Jordanian forces intercepted five incoming missiles.
The collision came at the worst possible moment. Trump had said as recently as June 8, that a peace deal was days away. Meanwhile the Hormuz blockade remains in full force the US Navy enforcing a cordon on Iranian port traffic since April 13 and IRGC mining keeping commercial tankers away. Before this war started in February, roughly 20 million barrels of oil moved through the strait each day that number is close to zero. For India, the Hormuz blockade is not a distant news story. It runs directly through the balance sheets of IOC, BPCL and HPCL.
Brent at $94, Dalal Street Swings on Headlines
Brent crude spiked to $98.08 intraday on June 8 before closing at $94.25. The next session brought a correction to $92.50 on brief ceasefire speculation which evaporated once the evening CENTCOM strikes were confirmed. For context Brent sat at $72 when the war began in February. It peaked at $126 in March. The $92 to $94 range is where markets have settled into an exhausted priced-in equilibrium.
The BSE Sensex dropped 719 points on June 8, closing at 73,524. Foreign institutional investors pulled ₹5,555 crore from Indian equities in that single session. On June 9, the index clawed back 394 points to 73,918, tracking ceasefire optimism before the evening strikes reset the picture. India VIX spiked to 17.03 on June 8 and fell sharply to 15.58 on June 9 reflecting how rapidly sentiment swings on each headline. IndiGo fell 2.52% on Monday and recovered 3% on Tuesday. OMC stocks BPCL, HPCL, IOC have lost between 22% and 26% since February. They jumped 4% as crude dipped below $95 on June 9, which tells you exactly how tightly these stocks now track every dollar move in Brent.
The Hormuz Blockade India Cannot Outlast
India imports 89% of its crude oil. Roughly half of that transits the Strait of Hormuz, along with 60% of LNG imports and virtually all imported LPG. State oil companies are absorbing under-recoveries of ₹30 per litre on diesel and ₹6 per litre on petrol. The LPG shortfall is ₹700 per cylinder. Combined, the three state fuel retailers are currently losing ₹600 to ₹700 crore every day.
The government has already forfeited ₹1.23 lakh crore in excise revenue over 78 days to protect retail prices. ICRA estimates OMCs still need another ₹5 per litre increase just to break even. The RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% on June 5, cutting the GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.6% and raising its inflation projection to 5.1%. Governor Sanjay Malhotra was unambiguous rising energy costs will weigh on economic activity for as long as the conflict continues.
JP Morgan projects Brent will average $96 for the full year. Morgan Stanley warns of stagflation risk across emerging markets and flags India’s Gulf-routed fertiliser imports as a secondary inflation channel. The rupee touched a record low of 96.86 on May 20 and faces fresh pressure with each escalation cycle. According to ICRA, a ₹5 per litre retail fuel hike would add 36 to 48 basis points directly to headline CPI. The government cannot keep absorbing the war without eventually passing some of it on. The Hormuz blockade has no formal end date. Each strike and counter-strike resets whatever diplomatic clock was running and as of June 10, that clock has stopped.
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