India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have reached around 190 warheads
NEW DELHI: India may have assembled approximately 190 nuclear warheads, according to a new assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a US-based nonprofit policy research organisation.
The estimate, published in an article titled “India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026” by Hans Kristensen, director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project, places India’s arsenal ahead of Pakistan’s and close to that of the United Kingdom.
The report states that India has more than 160 warheads associated with operational launchers, along with additional warheads linked to newer missile systems currently under production.
“Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads,” the assessment notes.
Plutonium Stockpile and Production Capacity
FAS estimates that India may have produced enough military plutonium for between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads and could have assembled up to 190.
Citing data from the International Panel on Fissile Materials, the report says India had produced approximately 730 kg (plus or minus 170 kg) of weapon-grade plutonium by the beginning of 2026. Assuming roughly 4 kg of plutonium per warhead, this quantity could theoretically support 140 to 225 weapons.
The assessment cautions that the calculation involves uncertainties, including the exact designs of India’s warheads and the proportion of available plutonium that has actually been converted into assembled weapons.
It notes that India is unlikely to have used all its plutonium for warheads and may have retained some material in reserve. India’s 1998 nuclear tests reliably validated a fission design, but progress on boosted-fission and thermonuclear designs remains less certain.
Modernisation of Delivery Systems
India continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal. The country currently operates nine different nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft types, six land-based ballistic missiles and one sea-based ballistic missile.
At least two additional systems are in advanced stages of development and are expected to be fielded within the next few years. FAS observes that the size of the warhead stockpile is closely linked to the number and types of available launchers, as India is unlikely to produce significantly more warheads than its delivery systems can accommodate.
A related assessment by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists notes that India’s newly operational Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam, which achieved first criticality in April 2026, could potentially increase future plutonium availability if operated successfully. Additional fast breeder reactors are also planned.
Doctrine and Global Context
India maintains a nuclear doctrine of credible minimum deterrence and a no-first-use policy, a position the government has recently reiterated in Parliament. In contrast, Pakistan does not follow a no-first-use policy.
Despite growth in several national arsenals, the global nuclear balance remains dominated by the United States and Russia, which together account for the vast majority of the world’s nuclear weapons. China holds the third-largest arsenal, followed by France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
The FAS assessment relies on open-source information, government statements, media reports, think-tank analyses and commercial satellite imagery, as India does not publicly disclose the size of its nuclear stockpile. As new delivery systems enter service, the country’s warhead numbers are expected to grow further in the coming years.
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