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NEW DELHI: In a significant strategic and developmental move, India is on track to completely stop the flow of excess water from the Ravi River into Pakistan by March 2026. The completion of the Shahpur Kandi Dam project marks the culmination of a decades-long effort to utilize India’s full water rights under the Indus Waters Treaty.
Understanding the Shahpur Kandi Dam: A Key Infrastructure Project
Located on the Ravi River in the Pathankot district of Punjab, the Shahpur Kandi Dam is situated downstream from the existing Ranjit Sagar Dam, is a multipurpose initiative focused on irrigation and power generation. Standing 55.5 meters high, it includes a 7.7 km hydel channel and two head regulators. Once operational, it will divert approximately 1,150 cusecs of water to irrigate over 32,000 hectares in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kathua and Samba districts and more than 5,000 hectares in Punjab.
Jammu and Kashmir Water Resources Minister Javed Ahmed Rana emphasized the project’s urgency, stating, “Excess water to Pakistan will be stopped. It has to be stopped.” He highlighted its role in aiding drought-hit areas, adding, “Kathua and Samba districts are drought-hit areas; and this project, which is our priority, is being constructed for the Kandi area.” When pressed on implications for Pakistan, Rana remarked, “Why are you bothered about Pakistan? They are a marginal presence. Let them stew in the problems of their own making.”
The dam’s specifications include the potential to generate 206 MW of hydropower, primarily benefiting Punjab’s energy needs. Additionally, it will support an 80 km Ravi canal and a 492.5 km distribution network in Jammu and Kashmir, ensuring targeted water delivery. The project’s completion by March 2026 marks the end of a long era where surplus Ravi waters, estimated to be significant during non-monsoon periods flowed downstream to Pakistan due to the absence of diversion mechanisms.
A History of Delays
The Shahpur Kandi project traces its origins to a 1979 agreement between Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir for the Ranjit Sagar and Shahpur Kandi dams. The foundation was laid in 1982 by then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, with an initial 1988 deadline. The upstream Ranjit Sagar Dam was completed in 2001, but Shahpur Kandi faced repeated setbacks due to interstate disputes over water sharing, compensation, and funding.
Cleared by the Planning Commission in November 2001 and declared a national project in February 2008, the initiative faced further delays after a revised cost estimate in 2009. Interstate tensions between Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir escalated, leading to a halt in work until a resolution was reached in September 2018 through bilateral meetings facilitated by the central government. On December 6, 2018, the Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved the project’s implementation, providing central assistance of ₹485.38 crore specifically for the irrigation component.
Former Jammu and Kashmir irrigation minister Taj Mohideen highlighted the project’s independence from international constraints, stating that “the dam falls outside the Indus Waters Treaty because India has exclusive rights over the Ravi.” Local leaders, Bani MLA Dr. Rameshwar Singh talking to TOI echoed the sentiment: “Once it is completed, the water will no longer flow into Pakistan but will instead be used to irrigate our own vast areas in Kathua.”
Following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 triggered by a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India has accelerated several long-pending hydropower and water infrastructure projects. This policy shift has fast-tracked not only Shahpur Kandi but also other hydroelectric initiatives on rivers like the Chenab and Jhelum.
The Indus Waters Treaty: Framework and Recent Turmoil
To fully grasp the significance of the Shahpur Kandi Dam, one must understand the broader context of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Mohammad Ayub Khan, with the World Bank as a mediator. Brokered after years of negotiations following the 1947 partition, the treaty allocates the waters of the Indus River system, which spans over 1,165,000 square kilometers and supports millions in both countries.
Under the IWT, the rivers are divided into two categories: the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) are allocated exclusively to India, with a mean annual flow of about 33 million acre-feet, while the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) are assigned to Pakistan, carrying approximately 135 million acre-feet. India is permitted limited irrigation and unlimited non-consumptive uses, such as hydropower, on the western rivers, but storage is restricted. The treaty includes mechanisms for cooperation through the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), data sharing, and dispute resolution via neutral experts or a Court of Arbitration.
Historically, the treaty has weathered three wars between India and Pakistan, resolving disputes over projects like the Salal Dam (agreed in 1978) and Baglihar Dam (cleared by a neutral expert in 2007). However, tensions escalated in recent years. Following the 2016 Uri attack, India reviewed the treaty, and after the 2019 Pulwama incident, PIC meetings became irregular. In 2023, India notified Pakistan of its intent to renegotiate, citing violations of the treaty’s spirit.
The turning point came on April 23, 2025, after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people (including 25 tourists and a local guide). India suspended the IWT, halting data sharing and enabling unrestricted use of western river waters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi invoked a strong stance, stating that “blood and water cannot be allowed to flow together.” In response, India conducted reservoir flushing at dams like Salal and Baglihar without notice and briefly stopped Chenab flows off-season. Pakistan’s leadership, including Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, warned of potential war or nuclear retaliation if water flows were further disrupted.
Union Water Resources Minister C.R. Patil reinforced India’s position, declaring that “Indus waters flowing to Pakistan would be stopped and used in India’s interest.” India has also rejected proceedings at the Court of Arbitration in The Hague, deeming them illegitimate amid the suspension.
The completion of the Shahpur Kandi Dam will bring tangible benefits to India’s border regions. In Jammu and Kashmir, it will irrigate over 32,173 hectares in the drought-affected Kathua and Samba districts, providing relief to farmers reliant on erratic monsoon patterns. Punjab will gain irrigation for an additional 5,000 hectares, enhancing agricultural productivity. This diversion addresses long-standing water wastage, where excess Ravi flows beyond India’s treaty entitlements reached Pakistan due to insufficient storage.
Potential Ramifications for Pakistan: Economic and Agricultural Challenges
For Pakistan, the cessation of surplus Ravi waters compounds existing vulnerabilities in a country where the Indus River system irrigates nearly 80% of its agricultural land and contributes about 25% to its GDP. Agriculture employs around 37.4% of the workforce and accounts for 22.7% of the economy, with major cities like Lahore and Multan depending on the system for water supply. The loss of excess flows could exacerbate water shortages during dry seasons, impacting crop production and food security
The Ecological Threat Report 2025 highlights that Pakistan’s dams can store only about 30 days of Indus flow, making prolonged disruptions disastrous for its densely populated plains.
Strained Bilateral Ties: Water as a Geopolitical Lever
The Shahpur Kandi project exemplifies how water has become a tool in India-Pakistan relations, especially post the IWT suspension. India’s upstream position gives it leverage, as evidenced by past brief disruptions that reduced flows by up to 90% during maintenance. While the treaty’s abeyance allows for accelerated projects on western rivers like hydro initiatives on the Chenab (expected 2027-2028) and the resumed Wular barrage on the Jhelum, it has drawn international scrutiny, with the World Bank clarifying its limited role.
With the Shahpur Kandi Dam set for completion by March 2026, India will finally put an end to the long-standing loss of surplus Ravi waters downstream. This long-awaited project delivers much-needed irrigation and power to border regions while aligning fully with India’s rights under the Indus Waters Treaty.
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